Vang SJC

Yesterday, WTI fell sharply on the strength of the dollar and Saudi Arabian oil output reached 10.6 mbpd in June, larger than EIA calculated.

US crude oil prices fell 1.7% to $50.21.

Currently WTI is trading at $50.31 at 1:57 pm GMT+7, up 0.2% compared with the opening price ($50.21).

Today is quiet data day with little supprising events, the market will be driven by fundamentals.

In a report July 10th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the market remains in “huge oversupply”. According to data submitted to the OPEC, Saudi Arabian oil production in June increased by 200,000 bpd to 10.6 mbpd. According to Bloomberg, Iraq also pushed production to 4.388 mbpd, the highest since 1985.

The UScontinue to cut 7 rigs last week, but it just shows that the US energy company are seeking to operate more cheaply by cutting unnecessary costs, rather than a sign of withdrawal from market, meet the expectation of the Saudi Arabian.

According to Aspect Energy, China’s refinery capacity fell almost 1 mbpd in May. At the same time, crude oil imports also fell by 11% over the same period last year, the storage activity has ended in May. Likely Chinese oil demand is no longer sustained oil prices anymore for the upcoming time.

According to preliminary data of Reuters, crude oil inventories of the US will decline 2.1 mbpd in July 17th , before coming the report of the American Petroleum Institute (API) at 3am tomorrow and official data from Energy Information Administration (EIA) tomorrow. This data is a bullish factor.

Crude oil stocks of Saudi Arabia rose to a record 300 million barrels, indicating strong demand from new refineries, rather than signs of increasing oversupply.

Forecast: WTI can expect a slight recovery to around $50.55 and then retreat to $49.35, closing price of April 2nd.

Linh Nhan