Vang SJC

Yesterday oil prices rose dramatically by 1.1% to $42.81, compared with the opening price ($42.33).

Angola, the second biggiest oil exporter in Africa, plans to increase crude oil exports to 1.83 million bpd in October, while production in July was up to 1.8 million bpd, according to IEA’s estimation.

Negative data for Japanese manufacturing: Export value grew 7.6% in July compared with the same period of 2014, but lower than 9.5% in June.

China stocks continued to spread in red fire, as investors fled the market, although the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said it will not intervene further in the stock market, except for wild fluctuations and systemic risks.

The financial risk and economic recession in the 2 largest economies in Asia threatened to crude oil demand.

Tonight, Energy Information Administration (EIA) will report US crude oil inventories last week (9:30 pm GMT + 7), according to a Bloomberg survey a decrease of 820,000 barrel is predicted although negligible. However, in the context of the fundamental unchanged, small data may be enough to drive the market. Supportive inventories may help WTI rebound.

Tonight before FOMC minutes published at 1:00 a.m tomorrow GMT+7, the US will release the CPI in July (7:30 pm GMT+7). As predicted by many experts, the inflation rate may not recover due the 2nd plunging of oil and the dollar appreciation. Negative CPI can put dollar on great pressure,helping the oil price to recover.

Minutes of the Fed’s meeting will have a certain impact, but the chance for Fed to raise interest rates in September has decreased from 50% to 40%, after the Chinese renminbi devaluation and downbeat economic data.

Currently oil is trading at $43.12 at 3:16 pm GMT+7, up 0.6% compared with the opening price ($42.84)

Forecast: WTI prices could rise to $43.90 the highest of last Thursday, if CPI and FOMC meeting minutes of the Fed do not support for the dollar.

Ban Mai