Vang SJC

Yesterday (June 10th), oil had a dynamic trading day and rose 0.91% to close at $61.09, as U.S. oil inventory drop sharply by 6.8 million barrels, more than forecast.. OPEC’s oil market report also gave oil price one hand in ticking up.

Oil is now wavering around $60.86 by confusing reports of World Bank (WB) and IEA.

Investors are waiting for U.S.’s retail sales, unemployment claims and gas inventory tonight.

Oil may be pulled down because:

  • WB lowered global economic growth outlook from 3% in January to 2.8%, oil price will have to struggle with weak demand due to tedious economic activities.
  • According to newest OPEC’s oil market report, outputs from non-OPEC producers are expected to rise by 680,000 bpd to 57.16 mbpd, while U.S.’s outpurs will reach 13.56 mbpd and Russia’s will reduce to 10.54 mbpd. Moreover, U.S. has surpassed Russia to become the largest oil exporter and gas exporter.
  • IEA estimates oil glut will stay for another long time although outputs from non-OPEC countries are slowing down. Production from non-OPEC group is foreseen to rise by 1 mbpd.

Oil may be pushed up because:

  • IEA lifts global oil demand outlook by 280,000 bpd to 1.4 mbpd. OPEC’s report forecast North America’s oil demand will rise by 220,000 bpd, Latin America by 200,000 bpd and Middle Eastern by 220,000 in 2015. Stronger demand will support for oil price.
  • U.S. indicates a weaker data than anticipation: U.S. consumer confident decreased 1.7% in June to the lowest of this year, according to a survey in Wednesday. Thomson Reuters/IPSOS consumAer sentiment index went down to 55.0 from 56.7 in this month.
  • China’s oil import is surging as this country want to make the most of cheap oil to increase their strategic oil storage.

Forecast: oil will go down to $60.42.

Ban Mai