Yesterday WTI suddenly boosted by weak dollar and EIA’s production forecast. WTI closed at $44.80, up 2.7% compared with the opening price.
The DXY Dollar Index fell to two week low. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischerhom said Fed will not raise interest rates until the inflation back. The ourlook for September rate hike is pushed back.
Yesterday, EIA has released a report predicting the output from shale oil fields will reduce by 75,000 bpd in September. The output of the Eagle Ford will reduce 56,000 bpd 1.48 mbpd, Bakken will reduce 27,000 bpd to 1.16 mbpd.
Meanwhile, the output of West Texas Permian Basin and New Mexico are expected to increase 8,000 bpd to 2.04 mbpd. (Reuters)
According to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net long position of WTI increased 13% in the week of August 4th.
Imports of crude oil since the beginning of the year in China rose more than 10% to 14 million tonnes, due to China provided independent refineries license to directly import crude, in the plan of building oil fufures platform.
OECD emphasized Brazil and China are losing growth momentum, which may create downward pressure on oil price.
JPMorgan cut its forecast for Brent to $54.5 and WTI to $48.5 in 2015.
WTI is currently trading at $44.46 at 1:46 pm GMT+7, down 0.6% compared with the opening price ($44.75).
Tonight the US will publish the preliminary labor costs and non-farm productivity in the second quarter. Good news for the dollar would make oil prices go down.
Forecast: WTI will return to fall to around $43.35 price.