Nigeria and other oil producing countries may soon come out of the prevailing low prices going by the recent April Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency, IEA. The IEA raised its forecast of 2015 global oil demand by 90,000 barrels per day, bpd, to 93.6 million bpd, a gain of 1.1 million bpd on the year and a notable acceleration of the 700,000 bpd growth in 2014, as the global economy slowly gains momentum.
According to the Agency, the colder-than-year-earlier temperatures in most of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, OECD, economies in this year’s first quarter also accounted for part of the upward revision.
Specifically, IEA stated that global oil supply rose by an estimated 1 million bpd in March, to 95.2 million bpd, as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, production recorded its highest monthly increase in nearly four years. Year-on-year gains totalling a whopping 3.5 million bpd were split between OPEC and non-OPEC production, it further stated.
OPEC crude oil output was said to have soared by 890 thousand barrels per day in March, to 31.02 millionbpd, on sharply higher Saudi Arabian, Iraqi and Libyan supplies. The IEA Oil Market Report, “call on OPEC crude and stock change” was revised marginally higher for the current quarter, to 30.35 million bpd, above the group’s official production ceiling, but left unchanged for full 2015 from the March report, at 29.5 million bpd.
It also noted that OECD industry stocks slipped by 1.7 million bpd in February, despite a massive 36.4 million barrels build in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data show OECD inventories up a counter-seasonal 29.2 million barrels in March, as United States crude holdings extended recent builds and refined products defied seasonal trends.
As regards refinery, the IEA report stated that global refinery crude demand is expected to fall seasonally to 77.3 million barrels per day in the current quarter, from 78 million bpd in the first quarter of the year. It explained that while Atlantic Basin refiners mostly completed turnarounds in the last quarter, Asian refinery maintenance is set to ramp up sharply this quarter, with up to 2.5 million bpd of distillation capacity offline at its peak in May.