Vang SJC

Yesterday (7/12), the gold price fell from a peak of 3 weeks amid continued market expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) may raise interest rates in December this. Ending the trading session yesterday, closing at $ 1,071.14 price / ounce, down 1.3% compared with the opening price $ 1,085.73 / ounce. 6th session last week (4/12), price highs at $ 1,088.88 3 week / ounce despite reports of US employment in November paved the way for aggressive Fed rate hike conducted.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continued to be under pressure at the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates in place policy meeting next week. In a speech last week, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen has strongly signaled that the central bank may raise interest rates in December, but warned that the economic figures coming unpredictable can do change the decision of the Fed. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said that the conditions to proceed with rate hikes have been met, and the economy is on a steady growth and moderate. The Bloomberg Dollar Index Spot towards the largest increase in the last 1 month. High interest rates reduce the attractiveness of precious metals and interest due is not paid to compete with the assets have higher yields.

Previous Fed rate hike outlook, economists said pessimistic about gold prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict gold prices will reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in one year to raise interest rates as the Federal Reserve, according to reports Tuesday 18/11. The precious metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors seeking returns from bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc. ABN Amro Bank NV predicted prices could go below $ 900 / ounce in 2016.

Investors are not too thrilled with the precious metal. Position The net sale of gold futures contracts and options contracts touched 17.949 in the week ended 1/12, according to the Commission Commodity Futures Trading (CFTC), the largest recorded since tracking 2006.

Although hurt by expectations the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, the precoius metal prices still have some positive signs.

Gold reserves of the central bank of China in November rose by about 21 tons, the highest level in at least five months amid record gold price momentum sharpest drop in more than two years. The value of gold assets of the bank’s $ 59.52 billion by the end of November, compared with $ 63.26 billion at the end of June 10. Earlier, gold reserves of China increased by 14 tonnes in October, 15 tonnes in September, 16 tonnes and 19 tonnes in August and May 7. 2nd largest economy yesterday 17/7 world has revealed gold reserves increased by 57% since 2009.

Besides, Russia and Kazakhstan have also enhanced in the context of price buy gold are recorded in the 3rd consecutive declines at the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates for the first time since 2006. According to the World Gold Council, central banks and other financial institutions also increased the amount of gold reserves to near record highs in the third quarter. Speculative demand for gold in these countries may support precious metal prices go up.

Upcoming New Year of the Asian countries, gold jewelery demand is expected to increase. Gold imports by India, the country’s second largest gold consumer in the world, doubling in November, amid the price dropped to 5 year lows boosted demand peak during the festival and wedding season , peaked at 101 MT from 45 MT in May 10. Demand flourishes in India and China can support the price rally in the near term.

Markets continue waited now important policy meetings of the Committee Federal Open Market (FOMC) next week. Expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in December has been strengthened after November jobs report positively. Decision of Fed tightening will cause the gold price to go down more dramatically. However Fed said delay raising interest rates may be a great kick push the precious metal prices near exit 6 year lows.

The focus this week will be retail sales data as well as the consumer price index (PPI) contribute to strengthening confidence in the US economic health. Today there is no economic events too prominent. Summary Indicators of employment opportunities and labor turnover (jolts) and economic confidence index of IBD / TIPP. The positive data could reinforce the upward momentum of Dong Dollar and gold prices downward pull.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Current GMT + 7 2:00 pm, gold is trading at $ 1,073.86 / ounce, up 0.3% compared with the opening price $ 1,070.53 / ounce, around 38.1 block. Prices are aiming 23.6 Fibonacci resistance level at $ 1.079 / ounce. If clearance strong 23.6, after hitting its predictions, the price will be going down and touch makes 50.0 at $ 1.067 and likely to continue downward at $ 1.062 61.8 touches clearance.

However, prices could also disrupt and prevent further climb 23.6 hit resistance at $ 1.088 / ounce.

Besides, engines TREND MuaEA signal SIGNAL sold yesterday helped us earned 209 points. Indicator continues to indicate a downward trend in today. Earlier, tools buy signal on July 3/12 helped earn 1501 points.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, adversely impact the gold price. Precious metals are still in downtrend. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week will decide the direction of precious metals prices.

Observe the H1 chart in Technical Analysis can see there are 2 plants should decrease compared to 6 candles rose. Average of 2 candle body fell only 175 points, while 6 rose candle candlestick averaged 86 points, showing steady uptrend.

RISK

RISK

Markets still expect the Fed to raise interest rates in December caused gold prices to go down further. However, there are possibilities that the gold price back up.

As mentioned in the Basic Analysis, China, Russia and Kazakhstan have also enhanced in the context of price buy gold are recorded in the 3rd consecutive declines at the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates the first time since 2006. demand for gold hoarding in these countries may support precious metal prices go up.

On the gold market, Asia is about to enter the Lunar New Year, when there is a rising gold demand, especially in India and China. Demand for gold can purchase the factors pushing up the price to go up.

Observe the chart we can see, the price of gold is around makes 38.2 and 23.6 towards resistance level at $ 1.079 / ounce. In case of strong buying power, the price could break this resistance level and continue to climb touch the red line at $ 1.089 / ounce, 3-week highs reached on 4/12.

MARKET COMMENTARY

Gold prices continued downward pressure on expectations the Fed to raise interest rates in the policy meeting March 12. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting last week. With few economic events of the day, predicted prices will fluctuate in a range not too large. Most likely gold prices will continue to go down could hit $ 1.062 / ounce.

However, the factors mentioned in the risk analysis, gold prices may also edged up in today, expected to climb hitting $ 1.089 / ounce.

Analyses of Group IF24h

Linh Nhan