Vang SJC

Yesterday (8/12), the gold price rose slightly in the context of market awaited policy meeting of the Federal Bureau of The (Fed) will take place next week. Precious metals remain under downward pressure before expected Fed raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range between $ 1,067.69 and $ 1,079.18 / ounce. Ending the session, the price closed at $ 1,074.65, up 0.4% compared with the opening price $ 1,070.53 / ounce. To learn Cause gold prices fell, investors read more here.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continued to be under pressure at the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates in place policy meeting next week. In a speech last week, Fed Chairman Janet Yellen has strongly signaled that the central bank may raise interest rates in December, but warned that the economic figures coming unpredictable can do change the decision of the Fed. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said that the conditions to proceed with rate hikes have been met, and the economy is on a steady growth and moderate. The Bloomberg Dollar Index Spot towards the largest increase in the last 1 month. High interest rates reduce the attractiveness of precious metals and interest due is not paid to compete with the assets have higher yields.

After the November jobs report positively, investors expect the Fed reinforces raise interest rates. Rate investors bet 78% chance the Fed will act in the following week’s meeting. Psychology lost faith in the precious metal as pressure gold prices downward.

Previous Fed rate hike outlook, economists said pessimistic about gold prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted gold would reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in one year to raise interest rates as the Fed, according to reports Tuesday 18/11. The precious metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors seeking returns from bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc. ABN Amro Bank NV predicted prices could go below $ 900 / ounce in 2016. The amount of gold held in ETPs funds declined to 1,465.2 MT 4 MT 2nd day, recorded track record decline since January 3.

Although hurt by expectations the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, gold prices still have some positive signs.

Yesterday, crude oil prices on world slump hit $ 38 / barrel for the first time since 2009 after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) to increase production ceiling blocks up 31.5 million barrels / day. Oil prices plunged as aroused concerns about inflation prospects. Meanwhile, inflation is one of the factors that influence the decision of Fed tightening. Oil prices so low that as inflation falls further, can cause delays decision Fed raised interest rates for the first time a decade.

In the context of the gold price is at a low level almost 6 years, China, Russia, Kazakhstan and other financial institutions also are increasingly hoarding gold. Speculative demand in these countries may support precious metal prices go up.

Upcoming New Year of the Asian countries, gold jewelery demand is expected to increase. Gold imports by India, the country’s second largest gold consumer in the world, doubling in November, amid the gold price dropped to 5 year lows boosted demand peak during the festival and wedding season , peaked at 101 MT from 45 MT in May 10. Demand flourishes in India and China can support the gold price rally in the near term.

Markets continue waited now important policy meetings of the Committee Federal Open Market (FOMC) next week. Expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in December has been strengthened after November jobs report positively. Decision of Fed tightening will cause the gold price to go down more dramatically. However Fed said delay raising interest rates may be a great kick push gold prices near exit 6 year lows.

The focus this week will be retail sales data as well as the consumer price index (PPI) contribute to strengthening confidence in the US economic health. Today there is no economic events too prominent. Markets “quiet” to wait the important economic events it is likely prices will not fluctuate too much.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

At 2:20 pm, GMT + 7, gold is trading at $ 1,076.46, up 0.1% compared with the opening price $ 1,074.87 / ounce, and is below makes 23.6 at $ 1.079 / ounce.

Observe the H1 chart can see, the price touched 23.6 plagued then retreated, similar happenings of yesterday, showed a 23.6 makes a quite hard. Prices retreated clearance 38.2 touched at $ 1.072 / ounce, and can pop up. Lows yesterday also hit around this zone where no deep down. Predicting the price will move in the range $ 1,072- $ 1.079 / ounce, the US could turn inched up to reach $ 1.085 / ounce.

However, if clearance 38.2 broken in today, prices may continue to go down further, may touch the red line at $ 1.066 / ounce.

Besides, engines TREND MuaEA SIGNAL buy signal in early trading today, helped us earned 152 points. Previously, the indicator tool 7/12 sold today also earned 174 points.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, adversely impact the gold price. Precious metals are still in downtrend. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week will decide the direction of precious metals prices. Today, the market will be in the psychological waiting to volume and margins will not be too big.

Observe the H1 chart in Technical Analysis can see currently has 4 plants should be reduced compared with 4 candles rose. Average of 4 candle body rose 100 points, while 4 fell candle candlestick averaged 36 points, showing a stable trend.

RISK

RISK

As mentioned in the basic analysis, most likely today the market will not fluctuate too large. Due to the impact of falling oil prices could cause the Fed to delay raising interest rates, predicting gold prices will go up today. But under heavy pressure due to expectations of Fed tightening conducting meetings next week, gold will still likely go down today.

Observe the chart we can see, gold is trading below 23.6 and direction that makes a clearance 38.26 at $ 1.072 / ounce. In case of strong selling pressure, prices could break this resistance level and continue to go down approach makes 50.0 level, and touch the red line at $ 1.066 / ounce.

MARKET COMMENTARY

Gold prices continued downward pressure on expectations the Fed to raise interest rates in the policy meeting March 12. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week. With few economic events of the day, predicted prices will fluctuate in a range not too large, may continue moving up hitting $ 1.085 / ounce.

However, the factors mentioned in the risk analysis, gold is likely to continue downward in today, is forecast to decline to the $ 1.066 / ounce.

Analyses of Group IF24h

Linh Nhan