Vang SJC

Yesterday (3/12), gold prices rebounded escape than 5 year lows after the European Central Bank (ECB) declared its policy decisions, along with the speech of Chairman federal Reserve (Fed) Janet Yellen in a hearing before the Finance Committee of Parliament. Ending the session, the price closed at $ 1,062.05 / ounce, up 0.8% compared with the opening price $ 1,053.66 / ounce.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices declined in Asian session yesterday due to the negative balance of speeches by Fed President Janet Yellen declares optimistic about the prospects for economic growth. She warned that waiting too long to terminate the era of near 0% interest rates could force central banks to tighten in a hurry, this is certainly a risk for the financial markets expect capital vulnerable, as well as affect economic growth in the past 6 years. The precious metal has fallen to low levels in nearly 6 years $ 1,046.37 / ounce and then inched up waiting for important economic data.

By the morning US session (ie dimension of Europe), gold prices soared after ECB President Mario Draghi declared his policy decisions. Accordingly, the term ECB easing its monetary next month at least 3/2017, while lowering interest rates 10 basis points to -0.3%. Before the meeting, Mr Draghi has strongly signaled that the central bank would do everything necessary in economic easing to boost inflation brought about the goal. Economists expect the ECB will pump more money into the QE package, and will cut interest rates further, by at least 20 basis points to -0.4%. The decision of the ECB has made the market disappointed.

The euro immediately highs at $ 1.09810, the most spectacular growth since 2009. The Dollar Index measuring the greenback’s strength versus the basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 2% of level of 97.60 before closing at 97.87 points. At the weakening dollar boosted demand for gold as an alternative asset, putting the precious metal price highs at $ 1,065.49 Day / ounce.

In addition, gold prices have been supported by US economic data less encouraging. Applications for unemployment benefits last week reached 269,000 shares, up slightly from the previous week figures at 260,000. Non-manufacturing PMI index of the Institute for Supply Management fell to 55.9 points in November, lower than the index in October was 59.1.

Today, the market continued waited an important economic data, the November jobs report in the US. In October, the labor market has added 271,000 new jobs, the largest increase this year, with the unemployment rate fell to 5.0%. Economists predict there will be 201,000 new jobs in November, the unemployment rate steady at 5.0% and average hourly wages will increase by 0.2% after a 0.4% jump in October.

Previously, Ms. Yellen has confirmed the economic data since the meeting in October also meet the expectations of the Fed on the labor market improved, and strengthened confidence in the inflation target 2% over the medium term. Therefore, the November employment report published today will attract the attention of the market, in order to confirm the ability of the Fed to raise interest rates at its meeting on 15-16 / 12 next.

Officials from the Federal Reserve (Fed) repeatedly signaled that it will likely raise interest rates in May 12. Both the market and the economy is now expected that following the US interest rate is average normalized in less than 2 weeks. That means, the data reported employment likely put more clues about the upcoming schedule of Fed tightening, rather than the time the central bank started raising interest rates.

Analysts said that if the jobs data disappointed to levels reached only 100,000 new jobs or lower than enough to change the economic outlook, prompting the Fed to delay raising interest rates. However, during the hearing yesterday, Fed Chairman Yellen said the US economy needs more less 100,000 jobs per month to enough new jobs to offset the total labor force, creating the foundation for increased absolute employment growth that policy makers want. Spokesman of the Federal Reserve reassured markets somewhat if November employment report for the disappointing figures. In that case, the copper dollar will limit the decline, so gold prices also difficult hikes.

During the hearing, basically, she’s optimistic Yellen, said that the way the economy to meet the criteria set for the phase Fed raised interest rates for the first time. The unemployment rate is low, growth continued modest pace, Ms Yellen indicated confidence that inflation will return to target level of the Fed. Despite weak global growth remained downward, Ms. Yellen reiterated America quite independent of consumption and domestic investment, the sector at least until now, is still strong enough to generate growth above the industry average . Viewpoint confidence of the president reinforces possibilities

Return to the November jobs report, usually this will be the time of hiring seasonal increase. The reason is that demand for vacation periods take place in the coming months, businesses will have to sell their labor in advance. This may be the reason why the number of jobs created in October hit record this year. Prediction, nonfarm payrolls released today will give not too negative data, can meet the market’s expectations.

If so, expect the Fed to raise interest rates in the meeting took place the next 2 weeks will be strengthened, and reduce the appeal of precious metals as no interest is paid. In case of a positive employment report will pull gold prices fall further.

Generally, gold prices are under pressure at the prospect of the Fed raising rates conduct, reducing demand on precious metals investment. Currently gold prices are still in the lower region of 5 years.

Besides these comments pessimistic analysts on gold prices in the future (such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted gold prices will reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in 1 year Until the Fed raising interest rates, as reported Tuesday 18/11. The metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors looking to profit from bond and shares, according to ABN Amro Bank Citigroup Inc. NV predicted prices could go below $ 900 / ounce in 2016), there are also positive signs that can support the gold market.

Upcoming New Year of the Asian countries, gold jewelery demand is expected to increase. Gold imports by India, the country’s second largest gold consumer in the world, doubling in November, amid the gold price dropped to 5 year lows boosted demand peak during the festival and wedding season , peaked at 101 MT from 45 MT in May 10. Demand flourishes in India and China could support gold prices go up in the short term.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Current GMT + 7 3:00 pm, gold is trading at $ 1,059.27, down 0.3% compared with the opening price $ 1,062.92 / ounce. This may be a temporary decline as investors take profits after strong gains yesterday.

In the Asian session today, gold prices fluctuated in a narrow range between $ 1.064 and $ 1.060 an ounce. According to Fibonacci, gold prices were at $ 1.058 touch makes 50.0 / ounce. Forecast in the morning European session, the price will be around in a range $ 1.058 – $ 1.062 / ounce, could hit 61.8 before going down.

Visit the US session (afternoon of Europe), the price of gold is likely to decrease in clearance 38.2 in $ 1.056 / ounce. If strong downward force can be prevented reaching 23.6 in $ 1.052 / ounce, and continues to go down towards the bottom of nearly 6 years at $ 1.046 / ounce.

Where clearance prices hit 23.6 then turning up, indicating there is strong resistance, prices may recover up to the resistance at $ 1.068 / ounce.

Besides, engines SIGNAL MuaEA sold TREND signal the start of Europe dated 2/11, and helped us earned 639 points. Indicator for indicators buying in late US session yesterday, and continue until the current trend.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, adversely impact the gold price. Precious metals are still in downtrend. The market is anxiously waiting for the jobs report released today evening, will strongly influence the direction of gold prices.

Observe the chart H1 can see are 5 candle fell over a total of 10 candles. Average of 5 candle body rose only 62 points, while the candlestick candle fell averaged 153 points, indicating bearish sentiment is stronger buying.

Most candles are long upper shadow candle at both increase and decrease candle, also showed that the market wants to sell off. This right to information as well as data in recent times (as mentioned in the fundamental analysis).

RISK

RISK

Markets still expect the Fed to raise interest rates in December caused gold prices to go down further. However, it is likely that gold prices back up from the lows of nearly 6 years.

November employment report disappointed investors, reducing expectations the Fed to raise interest rates, could cause the value of the dollar decline and gold prices go up. Besides, the policy decisions of the ECB will likely impact dollar contract today, so that precious metal prices also supported the recovery.

On the gold market, Asia is about to enter the Lunar New Year, when there is a rising gold demand, especially in India and China. Demand for gold can purchase the factors pushing up the price to go up.

Observe the chart below can see, the price touched $ 1.059 resistance level at 50.0 / ounce and then turn recovery, showed pretty hard resistance in this zone. In case the employment report disappointing, rates may recoil hit resistance at $ 1.065 and then highs of the day 2/12 at $ 1.071 / ounce.

MARKET COMMENTARY

Gold prices continued downward pressure on expectations the Fed to raise interest rates in May 12 policy meeting today, the precious metals will be volatile before the jobs report, expected to continue to go down the shop level approach makes nearly 6 years, could reach the $ 1.046 price / ounce.

However, in case of negative economic data did not meet expectations could support gold prices edged up, expected to climb hitting $ 1.068 / ounce.

Analyses of Group IF24h

Linh Nhan