Vang SJC

Yesterday (2/12), sharply falling gold prices plunged to near 6-year lows after the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, the number of positive US economic data, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade. Ending the session, the price closed at $ 1,053.54 / ounce, down 1.7% compared with the opening price $ 1,071.47 / ounce.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices moved sideways in European session yesterday waiting for the important economic events, and started plunging morning session entering the US non-farm data with positive ADP.

The private sector has added 217,000 US jobs in November, far exceeding the 191,000 expected by economists. This is regarded as a “good omen” for the official employment report by the Labor Department announced on Thursday 6 (4/12). Analysts expect the unemployment rate will remain at 5.0%, and employment increased by 190,000. Meanwhile, the average hourly wage is expected to increase 0.3%, after 0.4% jumped in March 10. The labor market improved signal consolidate Fed rate hike expectations of market , thereby reducing the appeal of the precious metal, dragging gold prices go down dramatically.

Then Fed Chairman Janet Yellen declared optimistic about the prospects for economic growth. She also warned that waiting too long to terminate the era of near 0% interest rates could force central banks to tighten in a hurry, this is certainly a risk for the financial markets capital fragile, as well as affect economic growth in the past 6 years.

She also confirmed the economic data since the meeting in October also meet the expectations of the Fed on the labor market improved, and strengthened confidence in the inflation target of 2% in the medium term.

The spokesperson Ms. Yellen was the latest sign indicates Committee Federal Open Market (FOMC) will raise interest rates for the first time since 2006, reinforcing market expectations. Immediately after her speech, the gold price immediately plummeted toward the bottom of nearly 6 years at $ 1,050.61 / ounce.

Besides, the Beige Book report released yesterday (2/12) in Washington shows that economic in most Fed regions grew modestly, with increased consumer spending and wage increases stability nail. Beige Book Report made the same point with Fed Chairman Yellen in a speech yesterday that she confident the economy is growing enough to improve the labor market and boost inflation. This is increasingly contributing to the consolidation of market expectations on the decision of the FOMC to tighten in meetings this month, causing serious damage to the gold price.

Prior to the downward pressure on prospects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, investors are massively selling precious metals. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell 2.4% in yesterday (2/12) down to 639.02 MT, the biggest decline since January / 2011.Cac currency managers are holding a net short position Large losses on the Comex. Speculators also increased net short position of up to 14.655 gold futures contracts and options in the week ended 24/11, the peak since the government monitor 2006 data.

Besides, the fundamentals in the gold market is also little support for precious metal prices. Demand in India and China, two countries the largest gold consuming world in the doldrums. The reason is that India launch gold project bonds, in order to mobilize hoarding gold in households and curb demand for gold imports. But in China, gold pulled out floor rising SGE also a record. These factors negatively impact investor sentiment in the people’s gold 2 gold consuming country.

Meanwhile, the upcoming New Year of the Asian countries, gold jewelery demand is expected to increase. But expect the Fed to raise interest rates again have greater pressure, keep metals prices hardly moved up.

Analysts are not so optimistic about the gold price. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict gold prices will reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in one year to raise interest rates as the Federal Reserve, according to reports Tuesday 18/11. The precious metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors seeking returns from bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc.

The focus of the market today is the hearing of Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen, the market is expected to receive strong signals suggests the Fed will tighten in December this. Besides the US economic data, such as applications for unemployment benefits rose slightly to 269,000 expected over the previous week 260,000 unit shares, and non-manufacturing PMI data by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Economists predicted the index would drop to 58.1 points from 59.1 the previous month’s figures. If economic figures achieved as expected or better last month, will strengthen confidence in the US economy’s health, copper wire Dollar gold prices go up and pull down. However, negative data will partially support precious metals prices edged up.

Besides, the policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) took place today also attracted the attention of investors. The ECB is expected to open more stimulus, causing the euro devaluation and strengthening position in the dollar, so the gold price partly pulled down. However, if the ECB declared easing QE package, and expressed optimism on the economic outlook Eurozone, would reduce the value of the dollar and help gold prices go up.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

3:20 pm Currently GMT + 7, gold is trading at $ 1,052.09 / ounce, down 0.1% compared with the opening price $ 1,053.66 / ounce.

In Asian trading today, the market is still in the negative balance of the speech of the Chairman of the Fed, gold prices continue to plunge hitting bottom at $ 1,046.37 6 year / ounce and then moved up.

Tools TREND signal SIGNAL MuaEA sold early Europe yesterday (2/11), and helped us earned 1490 points. Indicator indicator continues to sell today.

Back to the Fibonacci, gold prices hit a clearance 23.6 in $ 1.052 / ounce. Predict prices will continue around this resistance level and may interfere with 32.8 inches up toward at $ 1.056 / ounce before going down. If strong selling price of gold is likely to pull back on the daily low at $ 1.045, and may fall further.

However, as mentioned in section BASIC ANALYSIS, still capable of causing gold prices might go up. In this case, you can sort kkim climb back on the $ 1.065 / ounce.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, adversely impact the gold price. Precious metals are still in downtrend.

The market continues to wait for the next signal about the US economy’s health in the data tonight and nonfarm payrolls tomorrow, the spokesman of Fed officials to reinforce our expectations. Any signal boosters Fed tightening will cause gold prices from falling further.

Observe the H1 chart can see, there are four candles down from 3 candles increased, which decreased the longer the candle to see stronger sales force.

Meanwhile, gold prices fluctuated sharply yesterday, today most likely will precious metals continued volatility prior to the hearing of the President of the Federal Reserve and the US economic data.

MARKET COMMENTARY

Gold prices continued downward pressure on expectations the Fed to raise interest rates in May 12 policy meeting today, the precious metals will be volatile, the expected continued downward breaks of trendlines near 6 year, may hit $ 1.045 / ounce, and then fell deeply about $ 1.040 / ounce.

However, in case of negative economic data did not meet expectations, as well as psychological awaited November jobs report tomorrow, may support gold prices edged up, expected to hit the $ 1,060- climb 1,065 / ounce.

Analyses of Group IF24h

Linh Nhan