Yesterday (2/12), before weakening manufacturing data in the US and China, the price of gold edged up 3 consecutive sessions. Ending the session, the price closed at $ 1,068.91 / ounce rose 0.37% to compared with the opening price $ 1,064.93 / ounce.
Economic data disappointing, including the manufacturing sector and industry in the largest economy in the world, is the main obstacle to copper step Dollar, consolidating the gains in gold prices.
In the US, the economic picture more gloomy part when the production of national decline the fastest pace in more than six years. In a monthly report, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said the manufacturing operations of the economy sliding down the world’s largest remaining 48.6 points in November, falling below the 50 mark for the first time since November / 2012. The number of new orders also fell sharply from 52.9 to 48.9, the lowest in more than three years.
US manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time in three years, pushing the dollar slipped from 8.5 month highs set on Monday 2 (30/11).
In China, the status of production fell to its worst in three years, due to the stagnation of the traditional engine of growth increased risks to growth objectives of the government. The purchasing power managers (PMI) fell to 49.6 in November, according to the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Monday 3 (1/12), the lowest level since 08/2012. Excluding PMI rose from 53.1 to produce 53.6.
Fears of economic slowdown in China, along with the stock market goes down after the brokerage firm under investigation, have contributed to increased demand for the precious metal as a safe haven asset, support gold prices go up.
However, prospects for the Fed to raise interest rates is the main factor pressuring gold prices go down. This expected increase pressure on the demand for gold, while the fund managers do not need to wait to see whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) has raised interest rates in December or not, they have turned to selling off gold Breakneck Speed.
The speculators are net short position to accelerate up to 14.655 gold futures contracts and options in the week ended 24/11, the biggest level since the government began tracking this data in 2006. The gold ETF gold holdings cut in 8 consecutive days as of Thursday 2 (30/11) to the lowest level since 2009. There have been about $ 10 billion has evaporated from the fund in the year gold ETPs .
Tight monetary policy of the Fed reduced the appeal of precious metals as no interest is paid as bonds or stocks.
Amid this context, the analyst does not lose optimism about the gold market. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict gold prices will reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in one year to raise interest rates as the Federal Reserve, according to reports Tuesday 18/11. The precious metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors seeking returns from bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc.
Besides, the policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) takes place tomorrow (3/12) is expected to open more stimulus, worth Euro downward pull and consolidate its position co Dollar, thus partly pulled gold prices go down.
Market focus today is the speech by the official Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Fed president, Janet Yellen; Atlanta Fed branch president Dennis Lockhart; and San Francisco Fed President John Williams. Ms. Yellen and Mr. Lockhart are both members of the FOMC vote this year, with a view to support the Fed conducts monetary policy tightening. Along with that, the market will also wait for the ADP employment report, though not official data but positive data will reinforce expectations the Fed to raise interest rates. Economists predict, in November there will be 191,000 new jobs were created, the higher figures last month.
3:30 pm Currently GMT + 7, the price is trading at $ 1,068.24 / ounce, little changed from the opening price.
Market: In the context of the market bet on Fed rate hike outlook, several Fed officials have attitudes in favor of tighter monetary policy, particularly hawkish speech by Ms. Yellen identifiable, gold prices will remain under downward pressure. Prior to the aforementioned milestone forecast today will price volatility. Precious metals are still in the bottom almost 6 years, today will likely continue to decline, towards the bottom $ 1.052 / ounce.
However, if Ms Yellen expressed “hesitant” in his spokesman tight decision in December, or the non-farm data ADP do not meet expectations, will support gold prices go up, the probability power can reach the $ 1.080 / ounce.
Analyses of Group IF24h