Vang SJC

In yesterday’s trading session, the market awaited policy statement of the Federal Reserve (Fed). As expected, the central bank decided to raise interest rates by 0.25%, from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5%. The market becomes more active with gold prices rebounded after the Fed issued a statement and sign a roadmap to raise interest rates gradually.

Price fluctuations in amplitude between $ 1,078.45 and $ width 1,060.86 / ounce. The closing price was at $ 1,072.05 / ounce, up 1.05% opening price $ 1,060.86. All cause-specific analysis of gold prices you can see here.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Fundamental Analysis

Yesterday, the Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted through unanimously decided to raise interest rates for the first time since 12/2008. The federal funds rate was raised by 25 basis points to 0.25-0.5%. Previously, short-term lending rate was kept near 0% for almost 7 years, as a result of economic recession from the global financial crisis.

Fed officials have acknowledged the US economy is ready for a rate hike as household spending stable, thriving housing market and the labor market is creating 200,000 jobs average each month, bringing the unemployment rate to 5% -by half period of 2009. Federal Reserve Chairman, Mrs. Janet Yellen said in a press conference after the meeting: “The first thing that Americans should realize That is the decision of the Fed today reflects the confidence of economic institutions in America. ” Interest rates higher greenback reduces the appeal of gold as the precious metal owners are not paying interest, pressure on gold prices.

In the US, the Labor Department will publish the application for unemployment benefits (Unemployment Claims) weekly, said the first person applying for unemployment benefits last week counted. Economists predicted after two consecutive weekly gain, report today will show figures fell 11,000 to 271,000 claim. Then the Philadelphia Fed will also publish its manufacturing index, also known as the economic outlook survey of the state. Philadelphia is one of the states located in the center of the country, concentrated manufacturing industry, so this is quite an important indicator, is expected to reach 2.1 points, the highest level in recent months in the context US manufacturing is still facing many difficulties such as declining global demand and a stronger dollar. The published figures exceeded expectations would increase confidence in the US economy, strengthen the Fed continued to raise interest rates in 2016, the negative impact on precious metals.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technical Analysis

Currently, at 15:30 GMT + 7, gold is trading at $ 1,067.25 / ounce, down 0.44% Na compared with the opening price $ 1,071.96.

Observe the chart H1 can see open early Asia, candlestick long, almost no shadow on shows strong selling. Then the buyer gradually strengthened and dominated the next candle, clearance prices up 38.2 at $ 1,072.75 hit then not increase through this clearance and turning down deep in two consecutive candles. Markets continue pulling and current candle is passed around 50.0 block at $ 1,067.70 / ounce.

Tools TREND signal SIGNAL MuaEA sold early Europe today, does not take us by the price point rounding.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

Psychological Analysis

The market today has escaped pressure from the Fed meeting. Prospects for the greenback rose after raising interest rates likely to take the market dollar long position, temporarily leaving the precious metal.

Observe the chart H1 candle 5 candle down from 5 increase, the average increase stems shorter average candle body candle showed reduced selling pressure remains strong due to the demand in the market is affected by decisions yesterday the Fed. Prices moved sideways in the last hours of trading shows that markets still determine the direction of gold prices in the context of short-term, dollar price increase reduces the appeal of the precious metal, but in the longer term, inflation found increases will cause gold becomes a safe haven. In the future, the gold price will be volatile by economic data as well as speculation about the timing of the next rate hike by the Fed.

RISK

Risk

Yesterday whether the Fed raised interest rates, gold still ended the day in the green, contrary to the predictions of the market. Today, gold may continue to rise if confidence in US inflation strengthened. The decision to raise interest rates by the Federal Reserve shows that the global economy is growing well enough to help the central bank confident action and a roadmap towards the next rate hike. This suggests that inflation is likely to come back and support the gold price goes up.

According to the Bloomberg survey, 17 of 28 traders said gold prices will rise in 2016. Mr. Jordan Eliseo, chief economist at the Australian Bullion Co., Sydney also said that gold prices will rise sharply in 2016. In addition, QE trend will continue until next year, inflation in emerging markets such as China, Malaysia … is still, and gold will be used as a “shield” in front of loss the price of the currency caused by inflation. Also, after a long period of dollars invested in the prospect of rising prices, the fund has the ability to sell dollars to balance the portfolio, putting pressure on the greenback and pushed precious metals increase.

Market commentary

After the Fed raised interest rates, the dollar will strengthen as investors bought the greenback to a higher interest rate. Owners of gold are not earning interest, thus becoming less attractive and under pressure, able to down the $ 1.061 / ounce.
However, as discussed in the Risk, gold prices may go up hitting $ 1.081 / ounce.

Analyses of Group If24h

Linh Nhan