Vang SJC

Yesterday (15/12), the price of gold has passed session despite stronger dollar contract after the report data consumer price index (CPI) of the USA. Prices fluctuated in a range between $ 1,068.72- $ 1,058.92 / ounce. Ending the session, the price closed at $ 1,060.83 / ounce, up 0.1% compared with the opening price $ 1,059.72 / ounce. Since 4/12 2% yesterday, gold prices closed in negative territory last 6 of 8 sessions. The reason why precious metal prices plunged yesterday you can see here.


Fundamental analysis

Gold prices are still under pressure to go down before expected Fed rate hike. After two employment reports in October and November exceeded the market’s expectations, investors expect the Fed reinforces raise interest rates. On Monday, CME Group’s Fedwatch raised bets the Fed will act this week to 81.4%. Psychology lost faith in the precious metal as pressure gold prices downward.

Markets in psychology waited policy meeting takes place today, with expectations the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time in almost one decade. Fed Chairman, Mrs. Janet Yellen will have to decide not only on the issue of whether or not to raise interest rates, but also to ensure the market on track to raise interest rates once. The transaction is expected to raise interest rates at a rate of 2 or 3 times next year. The prospect of Fed rate hikes as hurting the precious metals, gold prices go down further.

Today in America, the preliminary PMI manufacturing sector will also be announced. In the context of the US manufacturing sector is affected by weakening global demand and the strong dollar, the index has dropped consecutively for two months and is forecast to reach 52.7 points, did not change much compared to figure 10 is 52.6 points in May. Although this is an important indicator of the Fed decision, but close. Manufacturing sector only accounts for around 12% of US GDP and can hardly turn things around even if this data does not achieve expectations. The US manufacturer said that the economy of this country is not yet strong enough to face tightening, however, the Fed expects the labor market may stimulate prosperity, promote personal spending and manufacturing . On the other hand, if postpone raising interest rates in this meeting, the Fed would lose not only credibility, but the US economy might fall into a hot growth, but then, the Fed would have to “clean up” post effectiveness by making aggressive tightening measures and suddenly-what could push the US into crisis again. Prospects for the Fed to raise interest rates after this meeting was weighing pressure on gold prices, pulling the precious metals go down.

In this context, many analysts have predicted pessimistic about gold prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted gold would reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in one year to raise interest rates as the Fed, according to reports Tuesday 18/11. The precious metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors seeking returns from bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc. ABN Amro Bank NV predicted prices could go below $ 900 / ounce in 2016. Pessimistic more, Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC – Predicting exact precious metal prices in quarter III, according to the Bloomberg ranking) said gold prices will decline every quarter, and to $ 950 / ounce by the end of 2016. Mr. Gan also said that the amount of gold held in ETFs will continue to decline further in next year.

Gold assets in ETPs funds declined for 3 consecutive days to 1,463.86 MT yesterday, according to Bloomberg data. This is the lowest level since March 2/2009.

Verdict of renowned analysts and the selling-off of the investment fund reinforces psychological “away” precious metals, hurting the gold price.


Technical Analysis

Currently, at 16:05 GMT + 7, the precious metal is trading at $ 1.066 / ounce, slightly higher than the opening price $ 1,060.81 / ounce.

In the Asian session, prices reached $ 1,062.47 clearance at 61.8 / ounce, and is continuing to rise to 50.0 at $ 1,067.45 clearance / ounce. It can be seen in yesterday, the price has tested twice this resistance but are not overcome and finished candle less drag. Predictions can touch makes going down, back clearance 61.8 in Europe and continue falling down in yesterday’s lows at $ 1.058 / ounce.

Besides, engines started MuaEA SIGNAL TREND for last buy signal in the Asian session today, now helps us earn 18 points.


Psychological Analysis

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, adversely impact the gold price. Precious metals are still in downtrend. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week will decide the direction of precious metals prices.

Observe the H1 chart in Technical Analysis can see currently has 9 plants should increase compared with 1 rose candle. Average body of 9 candles increase of 11 points, while the candle fell reach 7 points, indicating a stronger buying power in selling.



Although still subject to downward pressure eve of Fed meeting mid-week, there are positive signs helped gold prices rally in the near future.

World Gold Council (WGC) announced updated periodically statistics on the official gold reserves of the country. The changes are adjusted as gold reserves increased in the second half of 2015, Russia (95.6 tons during the period May 7-10), China (83.9 tons in 5 months up to August 11), Kazakhstan (11.7 tons within 4 months of the end of October). WGC expects these countries will continue to buy gold with the same speed. Speculative demand in the country may support precious metal prices go up.

Upcoming New Year of the Asian countries, gold jewelery demand is expected to increase. Gold imports by India, the country’s second largest gold consumer in the world, doubling in November, amid the gold price dropped to 5 year lows boosted demand peak during the festival and wedding season , peaked at 101 MT from 45 MT in May 10. Demand flourishes in India and China can support the gold price rally in the near term. Reports from Russia also showed gold output in the first 10 months declined from 246.1 tons to 243.9 tons in gold mining output also fell, indicating the loss of precious metal prices also affected profits of the miners. Supply and demand weakened in Asia increases will push gold prices rise in the future.

Market Commentary

Gold prices continued downward pressure on expectations the Fed to raise interest rates in the policy meeting March 12. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed meeting sachcua the 4th and 5th this week. The market is waiting for economic data from the United States to strengthen the Fed tightening, predicted prices will not fluctuate sharply today. Downward pressure is still hanging over the market, the price may hit $ 1.050 / ounce.

However, the factors mentioned in the risk analysis, gold is likely edged up in today, expected to reach the $ 1.072 / ounce.

Analyses of Group IF24h

Linh Nhan