Vang SJC

During the session yesterday (10/12), gold prices fell slightly amid of the sentiment waiting the policy meeting of the Federal Reserve Fed taking place next week. Ending the session, the price closed at $1,070.57/ounce, down 12.14% compared with the opening price of $1,072.03/ounce. The price fluctuated in a narrow range between $1,076.49 – 1,069.44/ounce.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are still under pressure to go down before expected Fed rate hike. After the November jobs report positively, investors expect the Fed reinforces raise interest rates. According to the Bloomberg survey, investors bet 76% the likelihood that Fed will act in the following week’s meeting. Psychology lost faith in the precious metal as pressure gold prices downward.

In the morning Asian session, gold prices plunged to $1,065.82 / ounce from the opening price $ 1,071.58 in the context of a stronger dollar eve of Fed meeting. The greenback rallied versus 12 of 16 major counterparts. The US dollar index measuring the strength Dollar contract with 10 other currencies rose 0.2%, recorded gains 4th consecutive points, and rose 0.3% this week (at 2:20 pm in Tokyo). At the Dollar sharply reduced the appeal of gold as a safe haven asset, pulling prices down.

Markets continue in psychology waited policy meeting held on 15-16 / 12, with expectations the Fed will raise interest rates for the first time in almost one decade. Fed Chairman, Mrs. Janet Yellen will have to decide not only on the issue of whether or not to raise interest rates, but also to ensure the market on track to raise interest rates once. The transaction is expected to raise interest rates at a rate of 2 or 3 times next year. The prospect of Fed rate hikes as hurting the precious metals, gold prices go down further.

In this context, many analysts have predicted pessimistic about gold prices. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted gold would reach $ 1.050 / ounce in the next 6 months, and will be only $ 1,000 / ounce in one year to raise interest rates as the Fed, according to reports Tuesday 18/11. The precious metal will average $ 995 / ounce in the next year, in the context of a stronger dollar and investors seeking returns from bonds and equities, according to Citigroup Inc. ABN Amro Bank NV predicted prices could go below $ 900 / ounce in 2016. Pessimistic more, Barnabas Gan, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC – Predicting exact precious metal prices in quarter III, according to the Bloomberg ranking) said gold prices will decline every quarter, and to $ 950 / ounce by the end of 2016. Mr. Gan also said that the amount of gold held in ETFs will continue to decline further in next year.

Verdict of the famous analyst reinforces psychological “away” precious metals, hurting the gold price.

Today, markets will receive US economic data as important as retail sales, producer price index (PPI) and consumer psychology of the nursery (University of Michigan), to help assess economic health American International. Economists predict retail sales excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in the 0.2% in November compared with the previous month. PPI producer price index is expected unchanged after declining 0.4% in May consumer confidence index 10 and is expected to edged up by 92.3 points compared to 91.3 in October.

The positive economic data showing the US economy is on the rebound, reinforcing market expectations on Fed rate hike outlook in the coming weeks, will pull gold prices fall further. However, economic data lower than expected caused the dollar will go down and support the gold price goes up.

Although still subject to downward pressure on the Threshold of the Fed meeting next week, there are positive signs helped gold prices rally in the near future.

World Gold Council (WGC) announced updated periodically statistics on the official gold reserves of the country. The changes are adjusted as gold reserves increased in the second half of 2015, Russia (95.6 tons during the period May 7-10), China (83.9 tons in 5 months up to August 11), Kazakhstan (11.7 tons within 4 months of the end of October). WGC expects these countries will continue to buy gold with the same speed. Speculative demand in the country may support precious metal prices go up.

Upcoming New Year of the Asian countries, gold jewelery demand is expected to increase. Gold imports by India, the country’s second largest gold consumer in the world, doubling in November, amid the gold price dropped to 5 year lows boosted demand peak during the festival and wedding season , peaked at 101 MT from 45 MT in May 10. Demand flourishes in India and China can support the gold price rally in the near term. Reports from Russia also showed gold output in the first 10 months declined from 246.1 tons to 243.9 tons in gold mining output also fell, indicating the loss of precious metal prices also affected profits of the miners. Supply and demand weakened in Asia increases will push gold prices rise in the future.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

At 2:00 pm GMT + 7, gold is trading at $ 1,071.08 / ounce, little changed compared with the opening price $ 1,071.58, and is tending towards Fibonacci resistance level at $ 1.073 38.2 / ounce.

Observe the H1 chart can see, the price touched $ 1.067 clearance at 50.0 / ounce but can not break down further, which makes turning up towards 38.2. Prediction current H1 candle will close around this level and price will move in the borderlands between $ 1,072- $ 1.067 / ounce in Europe. Go to the US session, the price will be more volatile, expected to continue to go down further, the possibility can fall down makes 61.8 at $ 1.062 / ounce.

50.0 In the event makes a strong enough not to go down price, gold could turn up strong and clearance towards 23.6 at $ 1.078 / ounce.

Besides, engines start MuaEA SIGNAL TREND sell signal in early trading yesterday, currently dominated by earning 102 points. Engine indicator continues to sell today.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, adversely impact the gold price. Precious metals are still in downtrend. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week will decide the direction of the precious metals prices, along with the important economic data released in the US today. Predicting rates will fluctuate sharply during the US session.

Observe the H1 chart in Technical Analysis can see currently have 3 plants should be reduced compared with 5 candles rose. Average of 3 candle body fell reaching 164 points, while 5 candle candlestick increase averaged 98 points, indicating more selling pressure remains strong buying power.

The H1 candle candlestick are longer than the H1 candle yesterday, showed large transaction volumes with wider margin, reflecting the mentality of the market is focusing on the Fed meeting and the visual impact Next to the price movement of gold.

RISK

RISK

As mentioned in the basic analysis, gold prices will be affected by the US economic data today. Despite the downward pressure on prospects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week, but gold prices could still edged up in today.

Observe the H1 chart can see, the price of gold has approached resistance level 50.0 and 38.2 are aiming clearance. In the case of US economic data lower than expected, prices could rebound, most likely touch makes 23.6 at $ 1.078 / ounce.

MARKET COMMENTARY

Gold prices continued downward pressure on expectations the Fed to raise interest rates in the policy meeting March 12. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week, and some important US economic data, estimates guess the price will fluctuate sharply today. Downward pressure is still hanging over the market, the case of economic data after “disastrous”, the price would still go down could hit $ 1.062 / ounce.

However, the factors mentioned in the risk analysis, gold is likely edged up in today, expected to reach the $ 1.078 / ounce.

Analyses of Group IF24h

Linh Nhan