This morning, sterling was in quite large fluctuations due to news related to Greece’s debt crisis and Grexit. Last weekend, Greece and its creditors agreed to hold a referendum to define their fate in the eurozone and announced to apply capital controls. The euro depreciated and affected to the pound indirectly.
The market reopened on Monday with a big gap, sterling rebounded from last week’s low and is in an uptrend. Currently GBP/USD was trading at $1.5713 at 2:43 pm GMT + 7, up 0.01% compared to the opening price.
Greek banks will be closed for the whole week, as the ECB decided to cut Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for Greece, the financial system of this country was officially “kicked” out of the EU financial market. Whatever the outcome of the referendum was, then one thing is fairly certain: Greece will be unable to repay their debts to the IMF in time (on June 30th). As a result, Greece will join the club of countries in arrears that currently includes Zimbabwe, Sudan and Somalia.
Today, “the director” on the “catwalk” was Greece, news of this country will lead the market. What investors can believe firmly now is Greece will go bankruptcy by tomorrow, whether it was in or out of the eurozone. The euro will be adversely affected as investors seek safer havens such as gold, US stocks, or sterling. England seems to be relatively stable and well immune from unusual changes that are out of the Foggy country.
Mony flow may be flowingrun into England more, help the Pound goes up. In addition, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) recently lowered interest rates last weekend, this could make the stock bubble of this country booming, as the Shanghai Index dropped 13% last week. China may not be abke to keep the capital flows, and these flows should seek other more stable channels investment amid the current chaos. The selection may include the US, Japan or Britain.
GBP/USD may rise to $ 1.5799, and back test the $ 1.5900 stiff resistance once again in the coming days.
Angus Robertson of the Scottish National Party (SNP: Scottish National Party) implies Scotland will propose a second referendum before 2020 if David Cameron pushed ahead with austerity or refused to hand over more powers.
Mr Robertson said: “He has to make a decision as to how he is going to approach governing Scotland with only one MP, having made a cast-iron promise and an undertaking to deliver on more powers for the Scottish parliament and the voters.”
Despite 55 per cent of the country voting to stay in the UK last year the SNP is said to be considering offering a second referendum in their 2016 Holyrood manifesto. It can not be sure whether this event has an impact on the Pound, especially the timing of it is still quite far away.
Tonight the US will release pending home sales, reflecting the health of the US real estate market. Also England will publish consumer confidence index GfK, if it is not good, in conjunction with the recovering housing market in U.S., the Pound may go down mildly.
Forecast: GBP/USD will rise to $1.5799, the highest of June 14th and 15th.