Gold prices climbed to their highest level in more than six weeks on Monday on the back of Friday’s disappointing jobs number, which sent the dollar index lower and left traders searching for safety. According to Dennis Gartman of “The Gartman Letter,” the move higher in gold could just be getting started.
The Dow Jones industrial average finished higher by triple digits on Monday after opening the session down by more than 115 points. The day’s volatility marked the fourth session this year in which the Dow was both up and down by triple digits in the same day. Gold prices held relatively steady throughout the session, maintaining gains as the equity markets turned positive.
“I think gold has turned for the better,” Gartman said on CNBC‘s “Fast Money” on Monday.
Gartman said his call is based less on a bet on sustained weakness in the U.S. dollar, and more on the commodity itself. “Clearly gold will do better if the dollar were to get a bit weaker in general terms,” he said, “but I much prefer being long of gold in non-U.S. dollar terms.”
According to Gartman, gold’s out-performance in recent weeks relative to other commodities is a bullish signal for the yellow metal.
“It is fascinating to me that gold has done better in the course of the past several weeks. Even as the crude oil market was coming under pressure, gold was doing better. Even as grains were coming under pressure, gold was doing better.”
Triogem Asset Management’s Tim Seymour said he didn’t see any real catalysts that could sustain the pop in gold. “There’s nothing to me that’s going to drive gold significantly higher, and the risk reward is that once we get back in this dollar ascension, you’re going to be in a place where gold is probably closer to $1,100 than $1,300.”
Gartman said he disagreed with Seymour’s assertion. “If you’re only a trader of gold in dollars, it has been a less-than-enthusiastic position to have held, and I’ve had no interest in gold in dollar terms,” he said. “But any other terms? It’s been a bull market for nearly two years. That’s hard to argue with.”
Pete Najarian of OptionMonster.com took the middle ground and said that while he was skeptical of a long-term rally, gold may get a lift in the near term. “I don’t know long-term that gold is ready to go just firing off to the upside, but from the short term … maybe we see some lifting there. I think some of these miners can really do well.”