Vang SJC

Early today (7/11), EURUSD stumbled lower, left a 32-pips gap down as the new week’ trading session opened. At 06: 35 (GMT), the currency pair trades at 1.10710, pulling back after striving up to cover the gap with a high of 1.11096. For now, today’s candle has not formed a lower shadow yet.


Fig. EURUSD D1 Technical Chart

Big factors that affect on EURUSD these days:

  • US Election

+ Sunday night (6/11 EST), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director James Comey said no new evidence has been found to warrant charges against Hillary Clinton in the investigation stemming from her use of a private email server while in government.

Chances that Ms. Clinton likely to become the first woman President in America now is on course increasing after a week diving in gray.

Tomorrow, official US election will take place, also decide where US economy – even the whole world – will go. It depends much on who will be the next leader of the largest economy, Trupm or Clinton, the two with their opposite thinking and standpoints. Now, all eyes pay on the historic Tuesday.

23 Mar 2015, Washington, DC, USA --- Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton takes part in a Center for American Progress roundtable discussion on "Expanding Opportunities in America's Urban Areas" in Washington. --- Image by © Brooks Kraft/Corbis

  • US economic data

+ The non-farm report on Friday showed that employers added 161,000 jobs in October – lower than expectation of 175,000.


Fig. US monthly non-farm payrolls report

+ October ISM non-manufacturing registered at 54.8, below both expectations of 56.0 and the previous month’s 57.1 reading.

+ The unemployment rate dropped back to 4.9% last month from 5% in September, in line with expectation.

  • China economy– the top export partner of America – is slowing

+ Exports are forecast to fall at an annual rate of 6.0% in October + imports are also estimated to continue falling at the rate of -1.0% in the same month.

+ Inflation numbers on Wednesday are expected to show further firming of prices in this country when CPI is forecast to show an annual growth of 2.1% in October, compared with the level of 1.9% from the previous month. Meanwhile, PPI growth is also forecast at 0.8%.

  • Oil price

Oil price rebounded in Asia on Monday as investors turned attention on OPEC efforts to curb output + effects of buying sharp declines in the previous week push prices to rise. Last week, prices fell sharply on Friday due to the latest news referred to that Saudi Arabia threatened to raise its oil production to 11 million barrels per day (mbd) and even 12 mbd if Iran refused to cut its output down.

+ Besides, prices stayed lower after oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. last week rose by 9 to 450, resuming its rise following its first dip in roughly four months in the previous week. However, the 14-member oil group said it won’t finalize details on individual output quotas until its next official meeting in Vienna on November 30.


Fig. WTI H4 Technical Chart 

  • EUR will continue gain in the next days because:

+ Prime Minister Theresa May must have parliament’s approval to trigger the Brexit process in Brussels on Thursday (3/11)

+ Doubt on the timetable of the UK government for launching Brexit talks, leading a rally in the pound.

Brexit text with British and Eu flags illustration

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