Vang SJC

Yesterday (26/3), EUR/USD fell 0.89% to $1.8667 from $1.0977, thanks to US’s positive economic data.

In the week ended at March 21st, number of unemployment claims fell by 9,000 to 282,000 the lowest since mid February, better than expectations (290,000). It indicate that the US labor market is recovering stably.

Before this data, the dollar was supported with DXY index rising from 96.91 to 97.38.

Currently, the pair is still in bearish trend, hitting the support $1.06489 set on March 19th. EUR/USD is traded at $1.1824, falling 0:55% at 4:50 pm GMT + 7.

The pair today largely fluctuate on US economic data.

Main scenarios:

Tonight will be announced US’s GDP IV/2014 . This is the most important indicator to assess the US economy’s health. Analysts forecast GDP to rise 2.4%, higher than the previous month (2.2%).

The situation of the US economy recently showed positive data that can support a positive GDP today. Therefore, investors will have more reasons to believe that the US economy is recovering strongly, dollar will be supported. Tomorrow (March 28th), Fed Chairman Yellen will deliver a speech at the Conference of Federal Reserve. Any optimisticc omments about the US economic condition will also support the possibility for arate hike in June of this year.

Forecast: EUR / USD may rise to the resistance at $1.06489 reached on March 19.

The other scenarios:

In contrast, lower-than-forecast GDP would make dollar retreat. The recently released data showed industrial output, retail sales and orders of durable goods in the US unexpectedly fell in February. Maybe Fed will be in no hurry to raise interest rates this year as economy is still unrested.

In this case, the EUR / USD will rise slightly, highly likely hitting resistance at $1.0963 set yesterday (March 23) and turn down.

Ban Mai