Vang SJC

Yesterday (23/12), EUR / USD turned bullish momentum decline after three consecutive days. The pair fluctuated in a range between $ 1.0871 and $ 1.0958 wide, before ending the day at $ 1.0910, down 0.43% to compared with the opening price $ 1.09549.

All cause-specific analysis Euro discount you can watch here.


Fundamental Analysis

Today is the last day to enter the market before Christmas vacation, the psychological sold will cover the market because no one wanted to take charge of the three day weekend. German Central Bank today began a public holiday, the European market may not be published data, so are likely equally exciting.

The focus of the market is the application for unemployment benefits (Unemployment Claims) US Weekly, published by the Ministry of Labour, said the first person applying for unemployment benefits last week counted. Economists predict the numbers from 14-18 / 12 will reduce 1,000 shares compared to the previous week at 270,000 shares, the lowest level since early December.

Stable employment growth is one of the reasons why the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at a meeting last week. Average 200,000 new jobs were created each month, plus personal income improved (up 0.3% in November) are promising stimulus spending through household-occupied to 2/3 of works US economic activity. The increased demand will lead to productive activities and services improved, contributing to growth and inflation.

In 3 years, US inflation (usually measured in personal expenditure index excluding energy and food-core PCE) are below the target of 2%. This year and in 2016, amid falling oil prices and the dollar gained, US inflation is expected to continue to increase and rose sharply in 2017 but will not reach 2% until 2018. President Fed, Ms Janet Yellen said she believes these factors are constraining US inflation will stabilize in the coming year.

Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to raise interest rates by 4 times in 2016 to bring the interest rate to reach 1.4% last year. However, the possibility of Fed tightening economic conference in March by the market assessment at only 50-50, while the possibility of further Fed action in April was not much higher.

In that context dollar will not appreciate in the near future, long position in the greenback also reduced. The hedge funds and other large speculators have reduced bets will increase from US $ 8 major currencies, in three reports last week from the Association of futures market transactions (Commodity Futures Trading Commission -CFTC). Position buy dollar dropped from 428.298 322.224 16/12 Tuesday 24/11. Besides, gold is also seen as an attractive investment channel after gold prices fell to their lowest level in 6 years. Demand for US Dollar drops are causing the greenback at risk of maximum discount versus the basket of six other major currencies since July 04/2015 and support the EUR / USD goes up.


Technical Analysis

Currently, at 14:52 GMT + 7, the pair is trading at $ 1.09440, up 12:32% compared with the opening price $ 1.09084.

Observe the H1 chart can be seen in the Asian session, after the first candle fell, prices are following the upward momentum is strong, breaking the consecutive block at $ 1.09137 38.2 and 23.6 at $ 1.09399 clearance. Current candle no lower shadow, long body showed upward momentum is still dominant, capable of re-establishing the summit on 22/12 at $ 1.09828.

Tools SIGNAL TREND MuaEA just buy signal in the early afternoon Asian session, currently earn about us new 17 points.


Psychological Analysis

Ahead of the holiday sentiment will cover key market orders. The financial institution holding dollars in an attempt to catch the waves in 2015 rose after the Fed raised interest rates, will want to sell to balance the portfolio while small investors likely will not hold command to avoid a fee or political upheaval, terrorist threats unnecessary.

Mr. Ray Attrill, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd., said “The greenback fell amid investors are not willing to hold dollars in holiday”.

Observe the H1 chart in technical analysis from the first candle fell, only 2 reduction compared with 7 candles candles rise, most platforms have long stems short ball, meanwhile, candle fell short again Friendly and long upper shadow, indicating weak sales. It can be seen, the buying power is dominant, pushing the pair rose sharply. In Europe, prices could continue upward momentum before more volatility in the US session as the jobs data was released.



Next year’s council vote Open Market Committee (FOMC) will change, three members tend to tighten (hawk) and 1 members tend to loosen (dove) will replace a hawk , 1 and 2 neutral dove. Therefore, the balance will tilt towards more economic tightening and the FOMC is expected to aggressively than in 2015. Figures inflation and stabilize spending in today plus integrated employment report pole in tonight (GMT + 7) can make FOMC members thought a rate increase in the first quarter / 2016. Outlook bullish greenback will continue to push prices upward dollar, causing downward pressure on the pair.

However predict this rise will only cause temporary price makes turning at $ 1.09137 38.2 The pair will also closed in the green.

Market commentary

Today eve of the holiday, the pair EUR / USD is capable of turning up in the psychological key points of market orders. Prediction price rose to $ 1.09900.

However, as analyzed in the Risks, prices could fall to $ 1.08600 if the figures from the US market positive.

Analyses of Group If24h

Linh Nhan