Vang SJC

Yesterday, EUR / USD has closed in the red after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to terminate the period of interest rates close to 0% after almost a decade. The pair made a strong fluctuation of $ 1.08862 to $ 1.10107 around before ending the day at $ 1.09087, down 12:39% compared to the opening price.

Specific analysis The decline of the pair of you can watch here.


Fundamental Analysis

Finally, the event most anticipated by the market since the third quarter of this year was also finalized. Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted through a unified decision to raise interest rates for the first time since 12/2008. The federal funds rate was raised by 25 basis points to 0.25-0.5%. Previously, short-term lending rate was kept near 0% for almost 7 years, as a result of economic recession from the global financial crisis.

Fed officials have acknowledged the US economy is ready for a rate hike as household spending stable, thriving housing market and the labor market is creating 200,000 jobs average each month, bringing the unemployment rate to 5% -by half period of 2009. Federal Reserve Chairman, Mrs. Janet Yellen said in a press conference after the meeting: “The first thing that Americans should realize That is the decision of the Fed today reflects the confidence of economic institutions in America. “

In the latest draft of the medium-term, the FOMC expects the federal funds rate will reach 1.4% until the end of 2016, before hitting 2.5% in late 2017. If you look at the process of Fed tightening in 2004-2006, anticipated FOMC may raise interest rates four times in the following years. However, Ms. Yellen said the Fed will not act mechanically but will review the data to determine the timing and amplitude of changes in interest rates. Prospects for the Fed to continue raising interest rates caused the greenback rose against other major currencies, putting pressure on the euro and drag the pair down. Psychology wait no longer, from now until the end of the year, the more likely the market will have to consider the economic data to predict the next move of the two central banks and the ECB Fed.

Today, Ifo Institute for Economic Research will publish the index of German business climate (German Ifo Business Climate). Of these, about 7,000 enterprises are asked to assess the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months. This survey is the market appreciated by large number of enterprises and responsive to market conditions, changes in business confidence may be early signs of activity Future Health as spending, hiring, and investment. December figures are forecast at 109.2 points, the highest level since May 07/2014, indicating market confidence in the German-largest economy in Europe. If the figures announced today positive, the pair will be supported by the market go up the rally believe the German economy in particular and the economy in general euro zone will not require an easing in Short-term.

In the US, the Labor Department will publish the application for unemployment benefits (Unemployment Claims) weekly, said the first person applying for unemployment benefits last week counted. Economists predicted after two consecutive weekly gain, report today will show figures fell 11,000 to 271,000 claim. Then the Philadelphia Fed will also publish its manufacturing index, also known as the economic outlook survey of the state. Philadelphia is one of the states located in the center of the country, concentrated manufacturing industry, so this is quite an important indicator, is expected to reach 2.1 points in the context of US production still has to cope with many difficult as declining global demand and a stronger dollar.


Technical Analysis
Currently, the currency is trading at $ 1.08587, down 12:46% compared with the opening price $ 1.09088.
In early Asia, the candle fell with long stems, almost no shadow showed overwhelming selling pressure, prices have tumbled down 38.2 at $ 1.08500 clearance then turning up slightly, currently trading on this block. Anticipated prices would drop below 38.8 again plagued then proceed to block 50.0 in $ 1.07864 in the US session.

Tools TREND MuaEA SIGNAL sell signal last for Europe on Tuesday, currently earn about 97 points for us. Indicator continues to sell signal today.


Psychological Analysis

The market today has escaped pressure from the Fed meeting. Prospects for the greenback rose after raising interest rates likely to take the market buy dollar positions, pushing the pair down.

Observe the H1 chart has 6 candles down from 4 candles rose, on average shorter stem rising average candle body candle showed reduced selling than buying pressure remains strong because the market is still affected by decisions yesterday the Fed. Temporary rally of the pair likely was because some investors sold dollars to take profits after the greenback rose more than 100 points against the euro. However, the demand will still gain the mainstream and can make the pair retreated to the middle of Europe, the US session.



Since May 10, the Euro was under pressure from the monetary policy of the Fed and ECB polarization makes this currency fell sharply. After the ECB disappointed markets by easing decision softer than expected, in one night, the Euro was up more than 3% against the US dollar. Yesterday, after the Fed’s decision, the greenback rose nearly 0.4% only versus the single currency showed Fed market was pretty well prepared psychologically, raising interest rates to such an assertion and not shocked the market.

After a long period of dollars invested in the prospect of rising prices, the fund has the ability to sell dollars to balance the portfolio, putting pressure on the greenback and the pair gained support.

Market commentary

After the Fed raised interest rates, the dollar will strengthen as investors bought the greenback to a higher interest rate. The pair thus under pressure, able to down the $ 1.07600.
However, as discussed in the Risk, plus the European economic data positively than expected could support the pair to go up reached $ 1.09700.

Analyses of Group If24h

Linh Nhan