Vang SJC

Yesterday (14/12), EUR / USD continued closing in positive territory in the context of the market waiting for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take place today. Detailed analysis of the Euro rallied Cause you can see here. Ending the session, the pair closed at $ 1.09898, up slightly from the opening price $ 1.09788.


Fundamental analysis

Psychology waiting eve last meeting in 2015 the Fed still hanging over the market. US Central Bank is expected to 81.4% (according to CME Group’s Fedwatch) will raise interest rates for the first time in a decade. Prospects dollar rose after the tight market in Chengdu long position for more than a month and a half now. The market is still considering the published data to examine whether the US was strong enough to cope with tightening or not in the context of labor market flourishes but production fell into a stalemate.

Today, the focus is the European market Economic Sentiment Index in Germany and Europe (German ZEW Economic Sentiment) is the Center for European Economic Research announced at 5:00 pm GMT + 7. These are just some of the positive measure about 350 experts on the current situation of the economy as well as expectations of economic development in the future. The index greater than 0 indicates optimism and vice versa. Economists predict the December index German Economic Sentiment will reach 15.2 while the European Economic Sentiment will reach 34.4. The forecast figures are greater than the index of the previous 3 months that the market recognizes the Euro zone economy is on the recovery zone stability. Besides the data Changes in labor third quarter, up 0.2% forecast. If published data than expected, confidence in the European economy will increase, reducing the ability to enhance easing from the European Central Bank (ECB) in the short term, supporting the pair go up.

In the US, today Labor Bureau of Statistics will provide consumer price index CPI and the CPI excluding energy and food. Although the CPI is not the Fed “favor” as the index of personal consumption PCE but also an important indicator for inflation. Because oil prices are plunging brake should not be forecasted CPI rose while Core CPI not be expected to rise 0.2%. Two indicators were maintained below 0.2 since the second quarter / 2015, showing US inflation is low. Meanwhile, inflation is one of the development goals of the Fed. So, in the two-day meeting of 15-16 / 12 (US time), Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to raise interest rates only by 25 basis points rate hike route also very slowly . The index of consumer prices affecting retail prices (Retail Sales) increased 0.2% in November only by the forecast while the core index rose 0.4% retail, 0.1% higher than forecast shows only Today’s CPI is difficult to increase. US Dollar unsupported may push the pair up.


Technical Analysis

Currently, at 14:25 GMT + 7, the pair was trading at $ 1.10285, up 0.35% from the opening price $ 1.09788.

Observe the H1 chart, according to the Fibonacci can be found in the Asian session, prices rose sharply and is approaching the highest level since last October was set yesterday at $ 1.10479. By the middle of the European session the US session, the price may go down the block 23.6.

Tools TREND MuaEA SIGNAL buy signal at the end of the European session yesterday helped us to earn 37 points. Today, the indicator continues to signal to buy.

Psychological Analysis
Ability Fed to raise interest rates at a meeting this week are still covering up the market, causing downward pressure on the pair.
Looking on the H1 chart we can see 7 candle up from 2 candle fell on average rose candle trunk reaches 12 points in the trunk candle average decrease reached 5 points indicates buying pressure overwhelms selling. New step in European session but the pair has been fluctuating sharply and vertically, may be due before the Fed meeting, the caution that investors left holding dollar positions. However, prospects for capital appreciation after the Fed raised interest rates to curb the rise of the pair, pushing the pair turned bearish.



The market continues to be dominated by the economic prospects of Fed tightening. Some industries are leaving the worst in three years day.Ong Harm Bandholz, chief economist at UniCredit Research, said that “the weak manufacturing sector is affecting growth.” However, this region accounts for 12% of the US economy while other sectors such as automobile manufacturers are now working properly.

Mr. Bandholz also said “I can not say that everything is perfect. But America is not bad that it takes a near 0% interest rate as now too. “

Psychology expect the Fed to raise interest rates make dollar strengthened against other major currencies is putting downward pressure on the Euro.

Observation Chart D1, current prices surpassed makes 50.0 but observe two previous sessions, the price was only tested through this resistance and then turn ending below makes visible today price may fall below $ 1.10000.

Market commentary

The pair remained under downward pressure eve of Fed meeting but predicted Euro will be the 3rd consecutive session ended in the green, predicting the EUR / USD is likely to take up the $ 1.10900.

However, as analyzed in the Risk, the price is likely to fall down the threshold $

Analyses of Group If24h

Linh Nhan