Vang SJC

Last Friday (11/12), EUR / USD gains recorded on the Tuesday amid market awaited a meeting of the US Federal Reserve Fed. Specific analysis you can see here. Ending the session, the pair closed at $ 1.09933, up 0.5% compared with the opening price $ 1.09390.


Fundamental Analysis

In the long term, the market is still affected by the ability Fed to raise interest rates during the meeting that took place between this week.

Today in America there is no published data so market focus is the speech of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB). Before the meeting was expected market day 3/12, Mr. Mario Draghi has made strong statements about the determination of economic easing to boost inflation and growth of the Euro zone area, that the ECB will do all what can to get rid of the block inflation figure of 0.1% is too low today. Prospects for monetary policy between the Fed and ECB polarization pushed the pair plunged more than 10% since mid-June 10. But at a meeting in December, Mr Draghi has shown restraint when only lower the interest rates on deposits down 10 basis points and extend implementation package of quantitative easing (QE) until May 3/2017. Additionally, other interest rates and QE package worth unchanged at 60 billion euros / month. Perhaps Mr. Draghi estimated that the Fed raised interest rates in December will cause the dollar rose, pushing the pair falling. The common currency weakened will make up a relatively expensive goods, support inflation. Besides, prices from Euro zone exports cheaper and help boost exports and manufacturing …

However, the degree of easing too gentle compared with market expectations fueled than 3.4% Euro recovery from 3/12 until this day. The euro exceeded $ 1.10000 made his expansionary policies Draghi reduced effects. Besides, prospects Fed raising interest rates just 25 basis points this week with a slow route most likely will not cause pop dollar rose against other currencies in general and the euro in particular. Thus, in a speech today, Mr Draghi will probably give signals easing in the future to make Euro cooled, pull the pair down.


Technical Analysis

Currently, at 14:41 GMT + 7, the pair was trading at $ 1.09590, down slightly from the opening price $ 1.09788.

Observe the H1 chart, according to the Fibonacci can be found in the Asian session, the price of the last test makes 23.6 at 1.09600 but turning down the block 38.2 and likely further to 50.0 at $ 1.09455 clearance.

But can find clearance prices have hit 38.2 and turned up slightly, if not break this resistance, the price will likely rise to around the opening price.

Tools TREND signal SIGNAL MuaEA sold today.


Psychological Analysis

Ability Fed to raise interest rates at a meeting this week are still covering up the market, putting pressure on the pair.
Looking on the H1 chart we can see 5 candle up from 5 candle fell on average shorter trunk average rose candle candles decrease showed strong selling over the buying power. Pair of small amplitude knife was translated by entering new markets of Europe, the first trading psychology and expect that traders dare not aggressive. Predicting after his speech Draghi, the pair will fluctuate sharply



Since early May, Europe had received the information quite positive about the economic situation. Specifically, the preliminary GDP rose 0.3% third quarter, the whole year, GDP rose 1.6%, the highest degree of market expectations; PMI manufacturing index reached 52.8 points forecast, while the unemployment rate fell only 10.7%, the lowest in three years … The Governor of the Central Bank of Germany, Mr. Jens Weidmann and Cooperation and economic development, the region is witnessing the Euro zone recovery is stable, so in the short term, the ECB is not necessary to enact additional measures to support the economy. Mr Draghi could therefore continue to expect the Fed’s actions in this 5th day and then give the market guidance. This will ease the downward pressure on the euro, supporting the pair go up.

Observations can chart D1 closing price at $ 1.10000 clearance 50.0 in.

Market commentary

Price Euro remains under pressure eve of Fed meeting this week. Mr Draghi will most likely give the signal of monetary easing in the upcoming meeting. Anticipating today’s prices will continue to fall, the pair is capable of closing around $ 1.10400.

However, as discussed in the Risk, the price could go up, the more likely to go down to the $ 1.08800.

Analyses of Group If24h

Linh Nhan