Vang SJC

Yesterday (10/12), EUR / USD turned down after two consecutive positive territory in the context of the market waiting for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Detailed cause Euro price reduction you can see here. Ending the session, the pair closed at $ 1.09390, down 0.77% from the opening price $ 1.10235.


Fundamental analysis

In the long term the pair remains under pressure to go down before the Fed meeting. Last week, President Janet Yellen has sent the message very strongly about the ability to perform Fed tightening next week. In it, Ms. Yellen emphasized that if any delay raising interest rates, the economy will fall into a hot growth and the Fed will have to take measures to tighten abruptly, it could put the US on crisis. The belief of the market is strengthened, pressuring prices up EUR / USD.

Today, the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) announced the wholesale price index (WPI) continued momentum from August plunged while 0.2% is forecast. While WPI decreased 0.2% in November, but was slightly lower in the last 3 months. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% in November compared with October and up 0.4% compared to the same period last year, reaching the market’s expectations. The CPI is often used to measure inflation, 0.4% of the German figure is greater than 0.1% inflation rate of the euro zone, showed that the largest economy in Europe is on a stable recovery and contributing to overall inflation goes up. Hence the common currency was supported against the dollar rise in analysis time (14:50 GMT + 7).

In the US, today announced PSO retail sales (Retail sales) and producer price index (PPI), along with the retail sales and producer price index excluding energy and real Is. If the figures published today for positive results than expected, the belief the Fed raising interest rates would have been reinforced, causing downward pressure on the pair.

At 10:00 pm GMT + 7, the University of Michigan will announce index consumer confidence May 12. This is preliminary leading indicator for consumer data Household-the main driver of the economy Noodle. The index is forecast at 92.3 points in December after the excellent beat the expectations in the previous two months. If continued rise, the greenback will be supported upward.


Technical Analysis

Currently, at 16:32 GMT + 7, the pair is trading at $ 1.09580, up slightly from the opening price $ 1.09390.

Looking at H1 chart, according to Fibonacci price is touching makes me see 38.2 at $ 1.09680 and turn your head to block 23.6. With strong price momentum may continue to rise, hitting 50.0 in $ 1.09800 clearance. However this is a strong resistance-peak rate Monday 3/12, dated Euro recorded spectacular gains since 2016, so the pair can go deep down to the lowest level in yesterday’s trading session at $ 1.09200.

Tools TREND MuaEA SIGNAL gave a sell signal yesterday but closed we did not gain any points. Indicator continues to sell signal today.


Psychological Analysis

The expectation the Fed raised interest rates in December was covered market, the negative impact on price of Euro. The common currency is still in a downtrend. The market is anxiously waiting for the Fed policy meeting next week will decide the direction of the currency pair EUR / USD.

Observe the H1 chart in Technical Analysis can see currently has 7 plants should increase over the 3 candle fell. Average body of 7 candle rose 30 points, 3 more than the average decrease was 15 points candlestick, suggesting overwhelming demand on selling.



In the past 3 months, the retail index and production index are low and not up to the expectations of the market. Cause Index low as dollar strengthened due to the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at its meeting on 15-16 / 12, besides the sharp fall in oil prices in the context of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC) maintained output determined to defend its market share. US manufacturing sector mired in its worst condition in 3 years, plus the low inflation led the Fed decided to fret before tightening. Prices on the futures market are showing that 80% investors believe the Fed will act next week, however, predict the federal funds rate will rise by 25 basis points from 0% -0.25 % like nowadays. Prospects Fed tightening mild and roadmap to increase interest rates gradually makes no soaring dollar compared to other currencies, reducing pressure on the Euro.

Observe the chart D1 may see rising prices, at $ 50.0 Proximity makes 1.10000.

Market commentary

Price Euro remains under pressure ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week. Earlier, the market is waiting for economic data to strengthen the Fed tightening. Anticipating today’s prices will continue to fall, the pair is capable of closing around $ 1.10200.

However, the factors mentioned in the Risk Analysis, Euro prices are still capable of moving up in today, expected to reach the $ 1.08900.

Analyses of Group If24h

Linh Nhan